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The global semiconductor stock still stayed at a high level
[Add date:2008/7/22 ]
  Although the economic situation worsens unceasingly, but in electronic industry supply chain's most participants in issue season time operation forecast confirmed the second wealth season achievement goal.

in 2008 the most manufacturers reduced or the constriction business income in the first quarter in the season anticipated, with at that time compared, the second wealth season's situation was quite positive. In second wealth Ji Jizhong forecasts, the most manufacturers reiterated the quarter business income anticipated or only has tightened the estimate sector slightly.

In 2007 the second quarter, the manufacturer finished the forecast which before the quarter provided to foresee this quarter entire supply chain's achievement situation accurately. Before June, the manufacturer gives predict that whether can also indicate accurately soon issued the achievement, must wait.

in 2008 starts in the second quarter, in the global electron supply chain's semiconductor stock surges upward, is mainly because the chip supplier's stock is surplus. in 2008 ended in the first quarter, in the electronic supply chain had 6,000,000,000 US dollar surplus stocks. iSuppli Corporation estimated originally the digit is 3,600,000,000 US dollars. In the first quarter remains the stock estimate upward revision, is because the enterprise in April, 2008 later issued that the achievement the manufacturer renewed the financial forecast.

iSuppli Corporation estimated that in the second quarter the semiconductor stock defends in 6,000,000,000 US dollars.

In the revision digit, the stock which comes out most is because of the semiconductor supplier's stock number of days (DOI) rise. The chip supplier announces the first quarter achievement conforms to its business income anticipated, but the storehouse amount on deposit accident rises. Although some stocks and change of price related, but other factors, like the new product inducts, the enterprise merger and acquisition as well as the various enterprises unique question, also causes in the semiconductor enterprise assets debt table the storehouse amount on deposit rise.

Will be belonging to the off season first quarter, the semiconductor supplier will usually increase the stock, for all this, in the first quarter surplus stock rise's anticipated will be produces regarding 2008 based on at the end of 2007 factories can the use factor drop. But, supplier's stock amount increased actually in the first quarter. The stock balance rise, as well as the seasonal sale is worn out, causes in the second quarter the DOI rise and the surplus stock.

when in 2008 ended in the first quarter, supplier's DOI close 44 days. This ratio in December, 2007 increased nearly for four days, but is lower than in 2007 in the first quarter the time 46.1 days. In the second quarter starts, supplier's surplus stock are more than near two weeks the inventory objective level. The supplier continues to have supplies in the chain 91% above surplus chip stock.

Also some part increases the stock serves the (EMS) domain from the electronic manufacture. DOI drops to below the goal level after the first quarter at the beginning, the outside estimated finished when March, EMS supplier's DOI compared to goal level low several days. But, in 2008 the EMS supplier obtains in the first quarter the supply is sufficient, causes its DOI to be more than for two days the goal level. When the first wealth season ended, DOI rose for 6.5 days. Following profits after 2007 EMS domain stock insufficient aspect, in March, 2008 supplies the chain to accumulate the stock situation to reverse, but at that time the EMS stock amount together dropped along with its cost of goods sold (COGS).

Although too much keeps in stock in 2008 in the first quarter the explosive growth, but the overall sales result conforms to the season state. The most manufacturer anticipated second quarter business income will conform to the season characteristic, although the economic growth postpones possibly to affect the consumer confidence and the disbursement.

When the demand continues is anxious, supplies in the chain to have these many surplus stocks to be unfortunate. If the demand drops in the second half of the year, at the appointed time the supply and demand two aspect factors will promote the stock to increase. In the second quarter the past half, the supplier has known regarding the demand situation really few, looked like in the first quarter of this year when the conclusion such. Although manufacturer business income report slightly obviously optimistic, but the iSuppli Corporation's findings demonstration manufacturer is similarly quite discrete to the second half of the year situation.

The second wealth season soon ended, the demand tendency as if is normal. The PC quantity of delivery tallies anticipated, although the server still had first wealth season carry-over some stocks. Notebook's situation also tallies anticipated, although the beginning of the year part and the battery aspect has some problems.

The memory continues to implicate the whole supply chain, because its sales situation is unstable, particularly the DRAM market's situation is indefinite. Stock market price fall, but will supply grows will reduce speed in the second half of the year.

In the first quarter the handset opening is difficult, at that time was developed the market the demand to weaken, is counter-balanced by the emerging market quite strong sale. Still somewhat was in the second quarter worn out. The early target direction meets in the first quarter the product mix reverse question, namely the low end handset displays well in the high-end handset. The Chinese demand situation was still in the third quarter anxious.

Estimated that in 2008 in the second quarter the surplus stock and the first quarter is impartial. In order to greet demand usually quite strong the second half of the year, the factory load starts in the second quarter to enhance. This conforms to the normal season tendency, the semiconductor supplier usually prepares in the second quarter to establish the stock. Although estimated that the surplus stock is impartial in the first quarter with 2008, but because the demand strong in is always the off season first quarter, estimated that the surplus stock will have slightly the drop. It is estimated that in the second half of the year the high surplus stock level will drop, if will cover in the handset industry above dark cloud does not throw down bigger shadow.


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